![](\"https://www.edwardtufte.com/tufte/graphics/minard_lg.gif\")
\n",
" ![](\"https://secure-content.meetupstatic.com/images/classic-events/500978458/1352x760.webp\")
"
]
},
{
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"metadata": {
"slideshow": {
"slide_type": "subslide"
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"tags": []
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"source": [
"## About this talk"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"id": "18abc912-d9f8-4640-a0f6-88636629af30",
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"source": [
"## Agenda\n",
"\n",
"* Probabilistic programming from two perspectives\n",
" * Philosophical: storytelling with data\n",
" * Mathematical: Monte Carlo methods\n",
"* Probabilistic programming with PyMC\n",
" * The Monty Hall problem\n",
" * Robust regression\n",
"* Hamiltonian Monte Carlo\n",
" * Aesara\n",
"* Lego? example\n",
"* Next Steps"
]
},
{
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"id": "1a046bf0",
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"source": [
"All the code that is shown in this webinar can be executed from its website. Therefore you have two ways to follow along:\n",
" \n",
"- Click on the run code button and execute the code straight from this page\n",
"\n",
"::::{div} sd-d-flex-row sd-align-major-center\n",
":::{thebe-button}\n",
":::\n",
"::::\n",
"- Clone the GitHub repo: [pymc-devs/pymc-data-umbrella](https://github.com/pymc-devs/pymc-data-umbrella) and follow along locally using Jupyter"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
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"metadata": {
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"source": [
"## Probabilistic programming from two perspectives\n",
"\n",
"### Philosophical\n",
"\n",
"#### (Classical) Data science —— inference enables story telling\n",
"\n",
"\n",
" ![](\"https://www.oreilly.com/content/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/probablistic-programming-lg-a4b8991929205945dbc850ce4dafc845.png\")
\n",
" ![](\"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/18/Bayes%27_Theorem_MMB_01.jpg\")
\n",
" ![](\"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3f/Monty_open_door.svg/640px-Monty_open_door.svg.png\")
\n",
" | \n", " | |||
| Prize behind | \n", "Door 1 | \n", "Door 2 | \n", "Door 3 | \n", "
| Door 1 | \n", "No | \n", "Yes | \n", "Yes | \n", "
| Door 2 | \n", "No | \n", "No | \n", "Yes | \n", "
| Door 3 | \n", "No | \n", "Yes | \n", "No | \n", "
\n",
" ![](\"https://docs.pymc.io/en/v3/_images/continuous-18.png\") \n",
" | \n",
" \n",
" ![](\"https://docs.pymc.io/en/v3/api/distributions/discrete-13.png\") \n",
" | \n",
" \n",
" ![](\"https://media.giphy.com/media/xUA7b0Klw8Wfor7FWo/giphy.gif\") \n",
" | \n",
"
| \n",
" | \n",
" \n",
" | \n",
"
![](\"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/aesara-devs/aesara/main/doc/images/aesara_logo_2400.png\"){kind=logo}
\n",
" ![](\"https://arviz-devs.github.io/arviz/_static/logo.png\"){kind=logo}
\n",
" ![](\"https://xarray.pydata.org/en/stable/_static/dataset-diagram-logo.png\"){kind=logo}
\n",
" ![](\"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/61/Gaussian_curvature.svg\")
\n",
" ![](\"https://austinrochford.com/resources/lego/IMG_5698.png\") | \n",
" ![](\"https://austinrochford.com/resources/lego/IMG_5696.png\") | \n",
" ![](\"https://www.lego.com/cdn/cs/set/assets/blt234378cdb80fb126/75296.jpg\") | \n",
"
| \n", " | ||
![](\"https://images.brickset.com/news/Brickset%20Logo.png\")
| \n", " | Name | \n", "Set type | \n", "Theme | \n", "Year released | \n", "Pieces | \n", "Subtheme | \n", "RRP$ | \n", "RRP2021 | \n", "
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Set number | \n", "\n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " |
| 1041-2 | \n", "Educational Duplo Building Set | \n", "Normal | \n", "Dacta | \n", "1980 | \n", "68.0 | \n", "NaN | \n", "36.50 | \n", "122.721632 | \n", "
| 1075-1 | \n", "LEGO People Supplementary Set | \n", "Normal | \n", "Dacta | \n", "1980 | \n", "304.0 | \n", "NaN | \n", "14.50 | \n", "48.752429 | \n", "
| 5233-1 | \n", "Bedroom | \n", "Normal | \n", "Homemaker | \n", "1980 | \n", "26.0 | \n", "NaN | \n", "4.50 | \n", "15.130064 | \n", "
| 6305-1 | \n", "Trees and Flowers | \n", "Normal | \n", "Town | \n", "1980 | \n", "12.0 | \n", "Accessories | \n", "3.75 | \n", "12.608387 | \n", "
| 6306-1 | \n", "Road Signs | \n", "Normal | \n", "Town | \n", "1980 | \n", "12.0 | \n", "Accessories | \n", "2.50 | \n", "8.405591 | \n", "
| \n", " | Name | \n", "Set type | \n", "Theme | \n", "Year released | \n", "Pieces | \n", "Subtheme | \n", "RRP$ | \n", "RRP2021 | \n", "
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Set number | \n", "\n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " |
| 80025-1 | \n", "Sandy's Power Loader Mech | \n", "Normal | \n", "Monkie Kid | \n", "2021 | \n", "520.0 | \n", "Season 2 | \n", "54.99 | \n", "54.99 | \n", "
| 80026-1 | \n", "Pigsy's Noodle Tank | \n", "Normal | \n", "Monkie Kid | \n", "2021 | \n", "662.0 | \n", "Season 2 | \n", "59.99 | \n", "59.99 | \n", "
| 80028-1 | \n", "The Bone Demon | \n", "Normal | \n", "Monkie Kid | \n", "2021 | \n", "1375.0 | \n", "Season 2 | \n", "119.99 | \n", "119.99 | \n", "
| 80106-1 | \n", "Story of Nian | \n", "Normal | \n", "Seasonal | \n", "2021 | \n", "1067.0 | \n", "Chinese Traditional Festivals | \n", "79.99 | \n", "79.99 | \n", "
| 80107-1 | \n", "Spring Lantern Festival | \n", "Normal | \n", "Seasonal | \n", "2021 | \n", "1793.0 | \n", "Chinese Traditional Festivals | \n", "119.99 | \n", "119.99 | \n", "
| \n", " | Year released | \n", "Pieces | \n", "RRP$ | \n", "RRP2021 | \n", "
|---|---|---|---|---|
| count | \n", "6423.000000 | \n", "6423.000000 | \n", "6423.000000 | \n", "6423.000000 | \n", "
| mean | \n", "2009.719913 | \n", "345.121283 | \n", "37.652064 | \n", "46.267159 | \n", "
| std | \n", "8.940608 | \n", "556.907975 | \n", "50.917343 | \n", "59.812083 | \n", "
| min | \n", "1980.000000 | \n", "11.000000 | \n", "0.600000 | \n", "0.971220 | \n", "
| 25% | \n", "2003.000000 | \n", "69.000000 | \n", "9.990000 | \n", "11.896044 | \n", "
| 50% | \n", "2012.000000 | \n", "181.000000 | \n", "19.990000 | \n", "27.420158 | \n", "
| 75% | \n", "2017.000000 | \n", "404.000000 | \n", "49.990000 | \n", "56.497192 | \n", "
| max | \n", "2021.000000 | \n", "11695.000000 | \n", "799.990000 | \n", "897.373477 | \n", "
![](\"http://xcelab.net/rm/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/9781482253443.jpg\") | \n",
" ![](\"https://images.routledge.com/common/jackets/amazon/978036789/9780367894368.jpg\") | \n",
"
![](\"https://c.tenor.com/N1bwJbGUPNgAAAAC/thank-you-alice-in-wonderland.gif\")
![Wikipedia](\"https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Bayes%27_Theorem_MMB_01.jpg\"){kind=link}
![Wikipedia](\"https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Gaussian_curvature.svg\"){kind=link}